Malaysia's trade figures for September are striking. Bernama's latest headlines, citing the Department of Statistics Malaysia, report that total trade increased 53.7 per cent to RM396.5 billion, driven by strong export and import growth. I have only seen the headline, so I do not know the breakdown between exports and imports, the trade balance or which sectors drove the increase.
A jump of more than half in a single period is unusually large, and it is wise to look at the base for comparison. Trade figures can be affected by prices, exchange rates, shipping volumes and the timing of large shipments. Year-on-year or month-on-month comparisons can also give different impressions. Readers should check whether the 53.7 per cent refers to a particular period and what it is being compared with.
The figure arrives at a time of global trade tension. Tariff disputes in North America, a surge of Chinese hybrid exports to Europe and uncertainty about energy prices because of the Iran war all influence trade flows. Malaysia's role in electronics and electrical products is important, and earlier this month the government spoke about diversifying away from overdependence on semiconductors, while also pursuing trade deals with the EU and Thailand.
For ordinary people, strong trade can mean more business for exporters, jobs in manufacturing and logistics, and support for the ringgit. But it does not automatically improve household incomes or lower prices. Economists will also look at the trade surplus and at how much of the growth reflects higher import costs. Watch for the detailed DOSM release and for comments from the ministry of investment, trade and industry about what is driving the numbers.
