With one week to go before the US midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, Democrats enter the final stretch as the favourites to win the House of Representatives, while control of the Senate remains the bigger question. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot, and the result will decide whether President Donald Trump faces a Democratic check on his agenda for the last two years of his term.
Forecasts differ in detail but agree on direction. Prediction markets such as Kalshi gave a Democratic sweep of both chambers about a 66% chance roughly two weeks out, a Democratic House with a Republican Senate about 27%, and a Republican sweep about 9%. Decision Desk HQ’s model earlier rated Democrats as slight favourites in the House and Republicans as narrow favourites in the Senate. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats for a majority, a much steeper climb than the three they need in the House. Historically the president’s party loses House seats in most postwar midterms.
Several issues are driving the race. Fuel prices have surged because of the Iran war, and gasoline accounted for more than half of September’s monthly rise in consumer prices. Democrats are also pressing questions about Trump’s past association with Jeffrey Epstein, and on Monday called for a special counsel. Republicans typically emphasise the economy, immigration and national security.
Markets and polls are not the same thing. Prediction markets reflect bettors’ views and can move quickly, while polls carry margins of error and turnout in midterms is hard to model. Early voting is already under way in many states.
What to watch: turnout in early voting, late polling in Senate battlegrounds, the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday, and any shift in Iran policy before polling day.
Sources: Kalshi, Decision Desk HQ, Federal News Network, Action Network, Axios, Kiplinger (October 2026). Probabilities are estimates, not predictions of certainty. Compiled October 27, 2026.
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